Positive Incentives in Government: Superior Accomplishment Awards

Why One of the most important fields in which I can find almost no research is one the role of positive and negative bureaucratic incentives on government efficiency. In other words, how you could punish or reward civil servants to get the best results. It is well known that it is virtually impossible to fire […]

IMR Machine Learning Code.

For anyone else who wants to build on this, here’s the code to generate the prediction algorithm for my Independent Medical Review Prediction App: In the R language #Libraries require(tidyr) require(caret) require(randomForest) require(FactoMineR) require(magrittr) require(tm) #Load Data df<-read.csv(“link to data goes here”, stringsAsFactors=F) str(df) #Data Cleaning #https://stackoverflow.com/questions/33180058/coerce-multiple-columns-to-factors-at-once cols<-c(“DiagnosisCategory”, “DiagnosisSubCategory”, “TreatmentCategory”, “TreatmentSubCategory”, “Determination”, “Type”, “AgeRange”, “PatientGender”, […]

Independent Medical Review Prediction App

The app is here. In November 2020 I made an app that predicts whether someone’s Independent Medical Review will be upheld or overturned in California. If your insurance denies you coverage, in California you have the right to appeal that decision to the Department of Managed Health Care. They can overturn that decision and force […]

Illusory Arbitrage on PredictIt

I’ve seen semi-regular mentions of arbitrage opportunities on the political prediction market PredictIt. .These arbitrage opportunities are almost entirely illusory due to PredictIt’s fee structure but I haven’t seen a clear explanation of why. I’d like to lay that out here: a general explanation and two clarifying examples.  By arbitrage, I mean markets where the […]

Confusion on Unlearn and Control Groups

So Julia shared this awhile ago and it’s been stuck in my head and I owe her a response.   I’m talking, of course, about Unlearn Intelligent Control Arms. The basic idea is to save time and cost in recruiting control groups for medical clinical trials. If you’re testing a new medication or therapy you […]

Adjusted Bed Capacity for Covid Tracker and 4-4-20 updates

Updates So I found another data set that records the average number of days the ICU beds were used in each hospital for each CA county. I figured it would be a good idea to use that to calculate how many ICU beds would be available. I calculated the average number of days each bed […]