Illusory Arbitrage on PredictIt

I’ve seen semi-regular mentions of arbitrage opportunities on the political prediction market PredictIt. .These arbitrage opportunities are almost entirely illusory due to PredictIt’s fee structure but I haven’t seen a clear explanation of why. I’d like to lay that out here: a general explanation and two clarifying examples.  By arbitrage, I mean markets where the […]

Confusion on Unlearn and Control Groups

So Julia shared this awhile ago and it’s been stuck in my head and I owe her a response.   I’m talking, of course, about Unlearn Intelligent Control Arms. The basic idea is to save time and cost in recruiting control groups for medical clinical trials. If you’re testing a new medication or therapy you […]

Adjusted Bed Capacity for Covid Tracker and 4-4-20 updates

Updates So I found another data set that records the average number of days the ICU beds were used in each hospital for each CA county. I figured it would be a good idea to use that to calculate how many ICU beds would be available. I calculated the average number of days each bed […]

Covid tracking update for March 24th

So I wanted to make some quick fixes and add today’s data (the code in R to process the data and make the choropleth was written yesterday). I think I’m going to try to do this for a few weeks.  Big takeway is that while Los Angeles and San Francisco have most of the infections, […]

Covid Capacity mapping for March 23rd

So I found two really interesting data sources. The first is a list of every single licensed hospital bed for every healthcare facility that is licensed by the California Department of Public Health (link). The second is a list of Coronavirus infections by county provided by the LA times (link). Since many Coronavirus victims require […]