Adjusted Bed Capacity for Covid Tracker and 4-4-20 updates

Updates

So I found another data set that records the average number of days the ICU beds were used in each hospital for each CA county. I figured it would be a good idea to use that to calculate how many ICU beds would be available. I calculated the average number of days each bed was reported used over the past 10 years, converted that to the average number of beds occupied at any time, then subtracted that from the the total number of ICU beds. I don’t expect it to have a big impact. And oddly small number of ICU beds are usually in use but I guess you overbuild capacity so you always have enough room; it’s probably very hard to move someone in such critical condition that they need an ICU bed. Here’s the raw data:

County Average_Bed_Days_year Average_beds_in_use
Alameda 1743 4
Amador 1095 3
Butte 1336 3
Calaveras 1460 4
Colusa 1095 3
Contra Costa 2667 7
Del Norte 1095 3
El Dorado 975 2
Fresno 1704 4
Glenn 0 0
Humboldt 567 1
Imperial 2556 7
Inyo 395 1
Kern 1739 4
Kings 1082 2
Lake 793 2
Lassen 0 0
Los Angeles 3162 8
Madera 3827 10
Marin 1188 3
Mariposa 0 0
Mendocino 812 2
Merced 1289 3
Modoc 0 0
Mono 365 1
Monterey 1391 3
Napa 1592 4
Nevada 730 2
Orange 2870 7
Placer 2468 6
Plumas 0 0
Riverside 2349 6
Sacramento 3037 8
San Benito 730 2
San Bernardino 3218 8
San Diego 2906 7
San Francisco 2963 8
San Joaquin 1555 4
San Luis Obispo 1307 3
San Mateo 1836 5
Santa Barbara 1112 3
Santa Clara 3745 10
Santa Cruz 593 1
Shasta 2319 6
Sierra 0 0
Siskiyou 730 2
Solano 1761 4
Sonoma 1250 3
Stanislaus 2056 5
Sutter 275 0
Tehama 1460 4
Trinity 0 0
Tulare 1945 5
Tuolumne 722 1
Ventura 1369 3
Yolo 1278 3
Yuba 4382 12

Data Updates

The big story are the mountains and the Bay. The Bay is getting worse and worse, especially San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Marin. The mountains are also bright red, which is odd but not especially worrying. There’s very few ICUs in the mountains, so only a dozen cases can overwhelm a county, but I would have thought such a relatively remote area would have avoided more of the outbreak.

Map

Data

County Percent Capacity Used #Available ICU Beds Coronavirus Cases Estimated Hospitalizations
Mono 190% 1 19 1.9
San Benito 115% 2 23 2.3
Alpine 100% 0 1 0.1
Glenn 100% 0 2 0.2
Plumas 100% 0 3 0.3
Sutter 100% 0 16 1.6
San Mateo 59.1% 91 538 53.8
Nevada 51.7% 6 31 3.1
Santa Cruz 51.7% 12 62 6.2
Marin 50.7% 27 137 13.7
Yolo 33.6% 11 37 3.7
Inyo 33.3% 3 10 1
Santa Clara 26.8% 428 1148 114.8
Imperial 26.2% 21 55 5.5
Los Angeles 24.9% 2137 5325 532.5
Monterey 23% 27 62 6.2
San Joaquin 22.2% 86 191 19.1
Santa Barbara 22.1% 76 168 16.8
Contra Costa 21.8% 162 353 35.3
San Luis Obispo 20.7% 45 93 9.3
San Diego 20.2% 598 1209 120.9
Placer 19.4% 52 101 10.1
Alameda 18.7% 287 537 53.7
Tulare 18.7% 60 112 11.2
Riverside 17.9% 372 665 66.5
Humboldt 17.6% 25 44 4.4
Ventura 16.9% 120 203 20.3
San Francisco 16.6% 318 529 52.9
Sonoma 15.2% 69 105 10.5
Kern 13.6% 151 205 20.5
Orange 12.9% 607 786 78.6
Merced 12.9% 21 27 2.7
Sacramento 10.6% 368 390 39
Amador 10% 3 3 0.3
Calaveras 10% 4 4 0.4
Solano 9.4% 78 73 7.3
El Dorado 8.5% 26 22 2.2
San Bernardino 7.8% 478 372 37.2
Yuba 7.5% 12 9 0.9
Stanislaus 7.5% 87 65 6.5
Fresno 7.1% 145 103 10.3
Colusa 6.7% 3 2 0.2
Del Norte 6.7% 3 2 0.2
Madera 6.7% 42 28 2.8
Siskiyou 5% 6 3 0.3
Napa 4.5% 44 20 2
Mendocino 2.9% 14 4 0.4
Butte 2.5% 44 11 1.1
Kings 2.5% 20 5 0.5
Tehama 2.5% 4 1 0.1
Tuolumne 2% 5 1 0.1
Shasta 1.9% 64 12 1.2
Lake 0% 6 0 0
Lassen 0% 0 0 0
Mariposa 0% 0 0 0
Modoc 0% 0 0 0
Sierra 0% 0 0 0
Trinity 0% 0 0 0

 

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